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Additional info for A critique of monetary policy: Theory and British experience
M. Agresti and B. Mojon France, the most striking deviation occurred around the ﬁscal expansion undertaken after the 1981 elections. The Spanish business cycle appears to ‘converge’ with the area cycle after 1986, the date when Spain joined the European Community (EC). The Finnish ﬁnancial deregulation of the second part of the 1980s and the trade shock after the collapse of the Soviet Union mark the largest deviations of the Finnish business cycle. Italy, although highly synchronised with the area business cycle throughout the sample period, experienced much larger ﬂuctuations in the 1970s.
15 The cross-correlation of price levels with future GDP are much larger. Higher price levels are followed, two–three quarters later, by a decline in GDP. Fourth, the persistence of the price-levels business cycle components is very high. 1 for the sake of tractability and readability. These results are available from the authors upon request. In most countries of the euro area are measured as a residual in the national accounts. In Italy, in France and in the Netherlands, inventory series are also based on surveys.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 GDP Consumption Investment Cumulated inventories GDP deﬂator (level) CPI (level) CPI (inﬂation) Stock prices Real estate prices Short-term rate nominal Short-term rate real Long-term rate nominal Yield curve Real ef. 5 relative/GDP k St. -M. Agresti and B. Mojon recessions of the early 1980s are mirrored by a slowdown in the euro area. There was some divergence in the 1990s, as the American recession in 1991 during the Gulf War did not coincide with a slowdown in the euro area (which was buoyed by the ﬁscal stimulus in Germany following reuniﬁcation).